Unconventional Economist

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also Chief Economist and co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

Australia’s recession is set to deepen

The March quarter national accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the economy is sliding back into a per capita recession, with real per capita GDP falling by 0.1% in the March quarter – the 10th decline in 15 quarters since Labor took office in mid-2022.

Mortgage commitments plunge after negative gearing and CGT changes

Data from the AFG group of mortgage brokers, presented below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, shows that the number of mortgage commitments issued in the June quarter fell sharply, presumably reflecting the changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) announced in the federal budget in early May.

Australia’s shallowing economy drives collapse in living standards

Poor productivity growth is the single biggest pressure point facing the Australian economy.

Perth joins the house price correction

Perth is the final major capital city housing market to join the nation’s price correction, which began with Sydney and Melbourne and has slowly spread to the other major markets.

Unlike NZ, housing inflation is a thorn in the Reserve Bank’s side

Data centres will drive up energy, water and construction costs

CBA economist Lucinda Jerogin has written an interesting analysis of Australia’s data centre boom, which she forecasts will add 0.2% to Australia’s GDP growth over 2026 and 2027.

Brisbane house prices swing from boom to bust

The past six years have seen Brisbane dwelling values swing from being “affordable” at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to the second-most expensive in the nation, following a 122% rise over the six years to March 2026. The contrast between Melbourne (Victoria) is especially stark.

Victoria faces severe debt‑affordability crunch

The Parliamentary Budget Office recently forecast that the gross debt of the states and territories will exceed $650 billion in 2026-27, up from just $266 billion in 2018-19.

Canada shows Australia how to fix housing

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently touted that his government had “taken control of immigration”, noting that “asylum claims are down by a third, temporary foreign worker arrivals are down by half, and international student arrivals are down by 60%”.

Housing market conditions worst since 2018

At the start of the current housing correction, I forecast that it would be the nation’s worst in at least 40 years.

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