Australian LNG

More gas cartel whinging today at Cartel Headquarters.

So far, it has only happened in private. Will it happen officially? ANZ explores. Australia is heavily dependent on refined fuel (diesel, petrol and jet fuel), with over 90% of these fuels imported.

Lots of headlines.

Gas cartel central is freaking out.

Dated Brent was stable overnight. HSBC explores how oil will balance. If refined product flows remain constrained, the market cannot rebalance through stock drawdowns alone indefinitely. Product demand (not just crude demand by refineries) will have to eventually adjust through a mix of adaptation, price response, and rationing.

WA’s gas reservation policy is effective for one simple reason.

Via Professor Robert Pape, author of The Escalation Trap.

The AFR describes growing confusion and criticism surrounding the Albanese government’s proposed gas reservation scheme, which would require major LNG exporters to reserve 20 per cent of gas for the domestic Australian market from 2027.

Morgan Stanley has some great charts today.

What a pathetic human being Anthony Albanese is.

POTUS says Iran is going to capitulate as its oil wells explode. BofA estimates the timeline. Modest oil exports (250k bpd) at high oil prices could allow the Iranian regime to remain cohesive and service its wage bill, at the cost of potentially wider post-war economic imbalances.

Albo the coward hasn’t read The Art of the Deal.

No news is good news for oil, apparently, with prices coming off overnight amid the Gulf stalemate.

DXY is bouncing again with oil.

Does the gas cartel pay enough tax?

First things first.

Hoocoodanode?

This is superb analysis from JPM.

Due in large part to geopolitical tensions and worries about energy security, fuel scab Albo appears set to kybosh the gas tax.

By Dr Cameron Murray from Fresh Economic Thinking I explain how a scaled variable royalty does the job of a super-profits tax while avoiding the accounting trickery in order to share risk and get a better public return from resources.

As usual, a day after the Parliament heard sense from policy advocates, the gas cartel was unleashed.

Leading Iranian figures are criticising Donald Trump’s actions and threats, but there is still little indication that the US-Iran conflict can be resolved.

JPM answers.  Iran’s onshore storage capacity is roughly 86 million barrels and is currently about 54% full (around 47 mb), leaving approximately 40 mb of working capacity—equivalent to about 22 days of exports.