Iron ore price

I noted yesterday that Chinese steel output is going bust.

The ferrous complex is trading like Chinese stimulus is flowing like the good old days.

It’s farewell to a radiant world, reports Bloomie.

There’s a little steel squeeze underway in China.

Chinese growth numbers yesterday were awful, as usual. Industrial production (IP) growth slowed to 4.5% yoy in July from 5.3% yoy in June. Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth fell to -12.8% yoy in July from -9.3% yoy in June.

The ferrous complex is enjoying a little bounce.

Pilbara strikes, CMRG shanangins, and a little bounce in steel are giving the ferrous complex a meek relief rally.

The ferrous complex remains stuck in the mid-$95s.

It’s still hovering at maximum profitability.

The ferrous complex remains under pressure amid mounting cross-currents.

Ferrous remains the outlier in the exaggerated dead cat bounce, popping a little without steel support, probably thanks to the Pilbara strike in two days.

Iron ore is teetering at one-year lows along with steel prices.

Iron ore and steel keep on falling.

The bad news starts with China’s official NBS manufacturing PMI: 49.2 in July (GS forecast: 49.9; Bloomberg consensus: 50.1), vs. 50.3 in June. Official non-manufacturing PMI: 49.0 in July (GS forecast: 49.6; Bloomberg consensus: 50.0), vs.

Sometimes you time it with precision.

If you read RIO’s palava, you wouldn’t think so. Q2 sales: 1.6 Mt (100%) shipped to China during the quarter (H1: 2.2 Mt). The first customer collections were completed in April following tertiary crushing in China, with Q2 sales totalling 0.4 Mt (100%) and achieved Fe at 65.8%.

Iron ore continues to struggle despite the Brent tailwind.

Iron ore had been trading in lockstep with oil through H1 as freight rates roared higher.

Iron ore is following its seasonal pattern into a rebound (that will be aided by oil).

The ferrous complex is trying to hold $100.

Spewing, I missed this move lower thanks to the Iran War, but headwind seasonality is growing short, so I won’t chase it.

The ferrous complex is weak.

Iron ore has fallen 10% in recent weeks.

As we know, the Pilbara killer (Simandou) is pumping iron ore faster than anyone expected, to 2.2mt in May, suggesting that by year-end it could be in the 30-40mt annual range as locomotives arrive en masse.

According to ship tracking data from Kpler, shipments from the project’s Morebaya port reached 2.2 million tonnes during the month, far more than the record of 1.3 million tonnes set in April.