Will Kiwis stop migrating to Australia?

Tuesday 10 November 2026

In recent years, more New Zealanders than usual have moved to Australia.

As illustrated in the chart below, around 28,000 net New Zealand citizens migrated to Australia, significantly more than the average of 19,000 recorded over the past 22 years:

Independent economist Cameron Bagrie suggests net migration from New Zealand to Australia could eventually fall to zero owing to the weakening Australian housing market, rising interest rates, elevated inflation and a softening economy.

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.