The Coalition’s temporary migration cut is more ‘sleight of hand’

Tuesday 6 October 2026

The Coalition has announced its long-awaited migration policy, which you can read in full via this link.

The key points are that the Coalition has promised to cut net overseas migration (NOM) to 100,000 over the first two years of the next parliamentary term, after which NOM will increase to 130,000 in year three and then 160,000 in year four:

The reduction in NOM will be achieved via a 585,700 decrease in the stock of temporary visas between 2025-26 and 2031-32, mainly via a sharp decrease in temporary graduate visas (-261,200) and temporary bridging visas (-394,700):

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.