Odds increase for a 2027 Australian recession

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Australia’s economy has experienced some of the weakest per capita growth in the OECD over the past four years, with per capita GDP declining by 0.3% between Q2 2022 and Q2 2026.

Per capita GDP

Chart from Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)

The only thing keeping the Australian economy from experiencing an actual technical recession is the nation’s strong population growth (via immigration), which is tracking well above other advanced nations:

Population growth Anglosphere

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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