No spring bounce for Australia’s auction market

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Australia’s auction market has seen no spring bounce, with last weekend’s final clearance rate remaining below 50% at the combined capital city level, while volumes tracked nearly one-third behind last year’s.

The national final auction clearance rate came in at 49.3% for the week ending 6 September, marking the 14th week in the past 15 that the final clearance rate has been below 50%.

Cotality national auction clearances

Relative to the same week last year, the weighted average clearance rate is 20.7 percentage points lower (49.3% compared with 70.0%), and auction volumes have declined by 32.6%.

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While the national clearance rate has rebounded from June’s low, it is tracking at a level consistent with ongoing price falls.

Sydney’s final auction clearance rate rose to 52.5% from 51.5%, its highest since 26 July (53.3%), although auction numbers eased by 1.6% to 501 from 509.

Cotality Sydney auctions
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Melbourne’s clearance rate improved to 54.6% from 53.7%, the strongest since 9 August (56.8%), with volumes also up 1.9% to 656 from 644 the previous week.

Melbourne auction clearances

Brisbane’s auction market has crashed, with only 26.0% reporting a successful sale, the weakest clearance rate of any capital city, across 131 auctions (down 10.3% from 146).

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Brisbane auction clearances

Reflecting the weak auction market, Cotality’s daily dwelling values index continues to fall at a swift pace, with values declining by 1.3% over the past month at the 5-city aggregate level and falling almost universally across the major markets:

Cotality monthly
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The quarterly pace of decline remains at 3.9% across the five major capital cities, with all markets posting significant falls:

Cotality quarterly

Finally, the current decline from peak has reached 5.2% at the 5-city aggregate level and, at the current pace of decline, should exceed the record 2017-19 decline by the end of this year:

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Cotality peak decline

This weekend, 1,615 homes are scheduled for auction across the capital cities, up 12.9% from last week’s 1,431 but 32.8% below the 2,402 auctions held during the same week last year.

Auctions this weekend
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While auction volumes have risen with the start of the spring selling season, the national total remains well below last year.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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