Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors, posted the following chart on X (Twitter) illustrating the massive difference in goods (merchandise) exports between NSW and Victoria.
Chart by Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
As you can see, NSW goods exports have boomed over the past five years, driven by coal, which is the single largest export:
Source: DFAT
According to the Parliament of NSW, 77% of NSW coal was exported in 2023–24. Thus, NSW exported around 7.5 times more coal than was used domestically. The NSW government also received $3.0 billion in royalties from coal mining.
Victoria, by contrast, does not have any major commodity exports:
Source: DFAT
As a result, Victoria has the worst merchandise (goods) trade deficit in the nation:
Charts by Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
As illustrated above, Victoria’s merchandise (goods) exports have barely grown over the past 25 years, whereas imports have exploded.
In the June quarter of 2026, Victoria exported only $3.4 billion worth of goods against $11.3 billion of imports, giving an export-to-import ratio of only 30%.
Victoria’s strong immigration-driven population growth is working to worsen the state’s trade deficit as it increases the purchases of imported goods, without increasing exports.
Therefore, as Victoria expands by a projected 58% to 11.2 million by 2065-66, its trade deficit will necessarily widen.
The one saving grace for Victorians is that its lack of commodity exports has led to the Commonwealth Grants Commission giving it a significantly larger share of the nation’s GST pie, largely at the expense of NSW:
On trade and the GST, Victoria has become a ‘leaner’ state.
