Net overseas migration may finally fall below 300,000
The Department of Home Affairs (DHA) has released temporary visa data for the June quarter of 2026, presented below as a rolling four-quarter moving average to remove seasonality.
The next chart presents the data on an annual basis, with the 2.5 million temporary visas on issue being the highest on record for June:
Temporary visas as a share of the population were a record high of 8.9% in June 2026, or 6.3% if you exclude New Zealanders:
The following chart plots the change in temporary visa numbers by major category as a time series:
The table below presents the change in temporary visa numbers by category between Q2 2019 and Q2 2026:
Bridging visas (233,004) and graduate visas (179,415) have been the two largest drivers of the growth in temporary visa numbers, whereas student visas have now fallen below 2019 levels (-24,338).
When student and graduate visas are combined, numbers are just below their record highs:
The next chart plots the change in temporary visas against net overseas migration (NOM):
As you can see, the two move very closely together, and the moderation in the growth of temporary visas suggests that NOM should also slow.
Given the latest reading on NOM, which was 301,000 in the 2025 calendar year, the data suggests that NOM will soon finally decline below 300,000.
