Victoria: the youth unemployment state

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Thursday’s labour force release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) confirmed that Victoria is leading the nation in unemployment, with the state’s youth population being the most affected.

As illustrated below by Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors, Victoria’s headline unemployment was 4.89% in May, 0.72% higher than the national average excluding Victoria:

Unemployment rates - Vic per Nation

Victoria’s unemployment rate is the highest on the mainland, behind only Tasmania (5.3%).

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The nation’s youth is experiencing significantly higher unemployment, with 10.4% of those aged between 15 and 24 unemployed in May, significantly higher than other age cohorts (3.18%):

Unemployment rate by cohort

As illustrated below, Victoria has led the rise in youth unemployment, with 13.2% of 15- to 24-year-olds unemployed over the three months to May, well above the national average of 10.9%:

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Youth unemployment by state

The latest online job ads data from Jobs & Skills Australia (JSA), presented below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, shows that Victoria was also the only state in Australia to have fewer job ads than in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic:

New Online Job ads
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Victoria’s weak labour market presents a major headache for the state Labor government in the lead-up to the November state election.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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