Are the government’s NDIS cuts realistic?
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The federal government has introduced a suite of structural, legislative and administrative reforms to slow the rapid growth in National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) costs.
The changes fall into five broad categories: tightening eligibility, reducing plan inflation, cracking down on fraud and non‑compliance, shifting some demand outside the NDIS, and workforce restructuring.
Stricter access and eligibility rules
- Tougher “permanence” test — Participants must now exhaust all other treatment options before being deemed to have a permanent disability. This applies even to groups that previously received automatic access.
- Clearer eligibility requirements — Part of the government’s “Securing the NDIS for Future Generations” reforms, aimed at ensuring the scheme is reserved for people with significant and permanent disability.
- Reduced participant numbers — The government aims to remove roughly 160,000 participants over four years, largely by diverting people with lower needs to other systems.
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Reducing plan inflation and tightening supports
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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.