Alan Kohler dead wrong on immigration’s housing impacts

In November 2025, Alan Kohler presented an excellent explainer video for the ABC, arguing that the surge in net overseas migration from the mid-2000s, driven in part by international students, is a key reason behind the nation’s housing shortage.

“That increase in student numbers contributed to a doubling of immigration in the mid-2000s, and that in turn contributed to an under supply of housing for 15 years”, Kohler argued.

“The shortfall exacerbated during Covid, although it wasn’t offset by a surplus. So it’s still there and has now returned”.

Kohler also said that, contrary to the 1950s and 1960s migration from Europe, “no tradies are coming from India and China to build the houses they need”.

It was an excellent summary by Kohler of the housing situation in Australia.

Fast forward to last weekend’s ABC Insiders program and Kohler ‘flipped the script’, claiming that Australia now has a surplus of housing despite net overseas migration (NOM) rising in the latest quarter:

“When I did a book on housing, I suggested that they link housing construction to immigration. But that was two years ago, right, and the net overseas migration two years ago was 536,000 and housing completions were 175,000. So there was actually a shortfall gap in that year”.

“But now net overseas migration is down to 300,000 in the most recent year and completions have stayed the same. So now on that calculation there’s a surplus of housing”.

Kohler went on to explain that the ratio of people per home is 2.4. Therefore, if Coalition leader Angus Taylor were to link immigration to housing supply, then he would have to increase immigration.

There are fundamental problems with Kohler’s analysis.

First, it completely contradicts the chart he displayed above in November 2025 showing a worsening housing shortage. Since that chart aired, NOM has accelerated to 311,000 annually, which was only exceeded once in the nation’s history before the pandemic (i.e., in 2008):

The same goes for overall population growth, which rose to 436,600 in the year to September 2025, which was also only exceeded once in the nation’s history before the pandemic.

At the same time, actual dwelling construction has tanked, with only 172,700 homes completing construction in 2025:

Thus, with historically strong population growth and weak housing construction, how can Kohler seriously claim that there’s a “surplus of housing”, especially when only six months ago he claimed the opposite when population growth was softer?

Even using Kohler’s flawed 2.4 ratio of people per dwelling, 436,600 population growth in the most recent year would have required 182,000 dwellings to be completed, which Australia missed by around 9,000.

The number of homes completed also does not account for demolitions, such as when a single-family home is replaced with two townhouses.

According to the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council, 21,000 homes were demolished in 2024-25, reducing the net addition to housing supply to only 153,000, or by 12%.

Kohler’s 2.4 ratio of people per dwelling also doesn’t account for the fact that with an ageing population and shrinking household sizes (due to fewer children), we need more homes for a given population size regardless of NOM.

Ultimately, one only needs to look at the collapse in the rental vacancy rate to see that supply hasn’t kept pace with demand:

With Australian dwelling construction forecast by CBA to remain in the doldrums due to cost-inflation from the energy shock and higher interest rates:

And NOM forecast to remain historically high:

Australia’s housing shortage and rental crisis will inevitably worsen.

Indeed, this is exactly the scenario painted by KPMG in its latest annual housing market forecasts: