Treasurer Chalmers: Australia stuck in high migration, low productivity trap

Thursday 19 March 2026

This week, the Australian Treasury released monthly and quarterly data showing that net migration into Australia has rebounded and remains at historically high levels:

The following chart shows that in the first 3.25 years of the Albanese government, NOM averaged a whopping 1,145. This was well above the 610 daily average under the former Coalition government (excluding the pandemic lockdown), the 617 per day under the Rudd/Gillard government, the 407 daily average under the Howard government, and the 256 daily average under the Hawke/Keating government:

The surge in net overseas migration over the past 20 years has been associated with a collapse in labour productivity and per capita GDP growth:

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.