Australia’s major capital city housing markets have been two-speed since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020.
As illustrated below using PropTrack data on dwelling values, home prices across Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide have more than doubled since March 2020, whereas Sydney (46%) and Melbourne (22%) have experienced significantly slower value growth:
Cotality’s high-frequency daily dwelling values index also shows that dwelling values in Sydney and Melbourne have stalled over the past 28 days. In contrast, values continue to grow strongly across Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide:
I explained last month how the divergence in dwelling value growth since the Covid-19 pandemic can be partly explained by deviations in population growth rates from the pre-pandemic trend.
In a nutshell, population growth across Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia has been significantly stronger than the pre-pandemic trend:
Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
In contrast, New South Wales has experienced virtually no change in population growth versus the pre-pandemic trend:
Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
Whereas population growth in Victoria has been well below the pre-pandemic trend:
Source: Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
The sharp divergence in dwelling value growth between Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide versus Sydney and Melbourne is also reflected in the divergence in population growth relative to pre-pandemic norms.
The other significant factor driving the divergence in dwelling value growth is the volume of for-sale listings.
According to Cotality, total for-sale listings across Australia in February were tracking 17.8% lower than the same period in 2025 and 22.9% below the 5-year average:
Source: Cotality
New listings have jumped most sharply in Sydney and Melbourne, whereas total for-sale listings have also fallen less in these two major markets:
Source: Cotality
SQM Research data released last week shows similar trends, with new listings rising most sharply in Sydney and Melbourne:
Source: SQM Research
Total listings have also increased over the year to February 2026 in Sydney and Melbourne, whereas they have fallen sharply in Perth and Brisbane, and moderately in Adelaide:
Source: SQM Research
As a result, there is an acute shortage of homes for sale in Brisbane and Perth (less so in Adelaide) versus Sydney and Melbourne, which are relatively well supplied.
This surge in new listings in Sydney and Melbourne is weighing heavily on dwelling value growth.
