On Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released official population and immigration data for the June quarter, revealing that annual net overseas migration (NOM) declined to 305,500.
The decline in annual NOM came despite the ABS at the same time releasing detailed labour force data for November, showing that working-age (15-plus) population growth has accelerated after bottoming in March:
The data also contradicts the stronger population growth reported in this month’s Q3 national accounts:
As well as the surge in monthly net permanent and long-term arrivals, which had previously tracked NOM (in a directional sense) for 30 years:
Despite the obvious contradictions in the ABS data, immigration defenders and the government will no doubt be quick to point out that the NOM is falling back to ‘normal’ levels.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
The 305,000 NOM recorded in the year to June 2025 was only ever exceeded once before the pandemic, in 2008-09.
Since the end of 2019, NOM has averaged 266,000 annually, which is up massively from the 226,000 average in the 15 years of ‘Big Australia’ leading up to the pandemic.
In fact, since Labor was elected in mid-2022, NOM has averaged an extraordinary 424,400 annually, equating to 1,162 net migrants landing every day over Labor’s first three years and 1,273,200 net migrants in total.
As a result, NOM is running well above the pre-pandemic trend:
Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors, nailed the point home with the following chart posted on Twitter (X):
“In Q4 2000 it took 12 years of net migration to that point to add 1,000,000 people to the population”, Joiner wrote on Twitter (X).
“As of Q2 2025, it took 2.5 years. This has both fueled economic growth but also put pressure on the provision of housing, infrastructure and services”.
Joiner separately posted the following chart illustrating how Australia’s population growth dwarfs other advanced nations:
I have made similar comparisons previously to highlight Australia’s world-beating immigration-driven population growth:
The bottom line is that Australia’s NOM remains extreme by both global and our own historical standards. No amount of spin by politicians, the media, and vested interests can hide this fact.
We are nowhere near “normal” levels of immigration.
