Stats New Zealand’s most recent migration figures revealed that only 10,628 net migrants arrived in the country in the year ending August 2025, substantially below the decade average of 49,000 and around 120,000 fewer than the late 2023 peak.
Part of the decline in New Zealand’s net migration is attributable to large numbers of Kiwis leaving for Australia in pursuit of better employment opportunities and higher wages.
One of the positive outcomes from the slump in New Zealand immigration is that it has resulted in lower rents and a significant improvement in rental affordability.
According to data released last week by realestate.co.nz, the national average asking rent declined by $21 a week (-3.2%) to $628 a week in October, compared with the same time last year:
Source: realestate.co.nz
“The fact that average rental prices are down nationally tells us the rental market is going in a different direction from the broader cost of living pressure, which is certainly welcome news for tenants”, realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Williams said.
“For landlords, that means despite being hit with rising living costs, they may not be able to command the higher rental prices they would like”.
The following chart plots the annual change in New Zealand rents, as measured by rental bond data. As you can see, New Zealand has experienced the sharpest decline in rents in around 30 years:
Antipodean Macro’s Justin Fabo has published the same data on a quarterly basis against CPI rents, as shown below:
Separately, Fabo showed that the growth in New Zealand’s dwelling stock is significantly outpacing population growth, “keeping downward pressure on rents and housing prices”:
Sadly, Australian tenants are experiencing polar opposite results.
Net permanent and long-term (NPLT) arrivals into Australia have spiked, adding to rental demand.
Rental listings across the combined capital cities in Australia have fallen to a record low for November following a 17.9% annual decline. Rental vacancy rates are also tracking at record lows.
Source: Cotality
As a result, advertised rents have rebounded strongly, which follows a circa 44% rise over the past five years:
Unlike in New Zealand, Australia’s rental market is expected to continue deteriorating as immigration demand outpaces supply.
