The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population data is a lottery.
The population figures in the Q3 and Q4 2024 national accounts releases (here and here) diverged significantly from the official quarterly population data issued a few weeks later.
Therefore, population numbers implied in the quarterly national accounts (and other releases) can and do get revised later.
Nevertheless, the Q2 2025 national accounts, released on Wednesday, indicated that Australia’s population growth rebounded in the first half of this year after declining through 2024.
The following chart plots annual population growth, with the official numbers plotted in blue and the implied numbers from the national accounts shown in red:
The national accounts suggest that annual population growth accelerated slightly from 446,600 in Q4 2024 to 448,400 in Q2 2024.
The following chart from Alex Joiner at IFM Investors shows a faster acceleration when measured on a six-month annualised basis:
The July labour force release from the ABS provides estimates of the change in the civilian population aged 15-plus. This data suggests that annual population growth has basically flatlined since the end of 2024:
Finally, the net permanent and long-term arrivals series from the ABS reported a record 279,000 net arrivals in the first half of 2025:
This series has historically been a strong leading indicator for net overseas migration, which is the main driver of population growth:
My best guess is that net overseas migration has reaccelerated over the first half of 2025, although we won’t find out for sure until December.
Apart from the data above, the rental market has tightened back up, suggesting stronger immigration.
As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, both Cotality and SQM Research have reported falling rental vacancy rates over the first half of 2025:
As a result, rental growth has reaccelerated.
The Q1 2025 official net overseas migration and population data will be released on 18 September.
