The latest batch of housing construction data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that the Albanese government’s target of building 1.2 million homes over five years is nowhere close to being met.
First, in the year to May 2025, only 182,900 dwellings were approved for construction, 57,100 (24%) below the 240,000 required to meet the target.
The quarterly dwelling commencements and completions data from the ABS, released on Wednesday, paints a similar picture.
In the year to March 2025, 175,582 homes commenced construction, 64,418 (27%) below the annual construction target of 240,000 homes.
In the year to March 2025, 179,410 homes were completed, 60,590 (25%) below the annual construction target of 240,000 homes.
The following chart plots the number of dwelling completions against the annual construction target of 240,000 homes.
As you can see, the 240,000 target, which was already 16,400 (7%) higher than the record single-year construction reached in 2017, is nowhere close to being met.
Over the first three quarters of the Housing Accord, which commenced on 1 July 2024, the number of completions is already tracking 46,000 (26%) behind the 180,000 required to meet the construction target.
Finally, the next chart plots dwelling approvals, commencements, and completions against population growth.
While population growth has declined from the peak, there remains a gaping gap between supply and demand. This is especially true given that the above construction data does not adjust for demolitions, which, according to the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC), will offset around 12% of new homes built, reducing supply.
To add further insult to injury, the latest net permanent and long-term arrivals figures from the ABS suggest that net overseas migration and ergo population growth may have accelerated in the first half of 2025.
The 245,890 net arrivals recorded over the first five months of 2025 were the highest on record, exceeding last year’s record of 242,750 and dwarfing the 151,450 net arrivals over the first five months of 2019, prior to the pandemic.
Put simply, Australia’s housing market will remain chronically undersupplied so long as immigration demand continues to outrun new construction.
