Statistics New Zealand has released data showing that net overseas migration (NOM) decreased to 26,400 for the year ending March 2025, a decline from 100,400 in the year ending March 2024.
“The fall in net migration in the March 2025 year was mainly due to fewer migrant arrivals, although departures also rose to a provisional annual record”, international migration statistics spokesperson Sarah Drake said.
There was a provisional net migration gain of 71,200 non-New Zealand citizens in the year to March 2025, partly offset by 44,900 net departures of New Zealand citizens.
The net loss of New Zealand citizens in the March 2025 year was driven by 70,000 migrant departures, which more than offset 25,200 migrant arrivals.
Nearly 3 out of every 5 migrant departures by New Zealand citizens were to Australia, which has a significantly lower unemployment rate.
New Zealand is suffering from a brain drain of prime-age Kiwis.
Migrants aged 18 to 30 years comprised 27,200 (39%) of the 70,000 migrant departures of New Zealand citizens in the March 2025 year.
Migrants aged 18 to 44 years combrised 80,200 (64%) of the 124,400 migrant arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens in the March 2025 year.
Unlike Australia, housing in New Zealand is becoming more affordable courtesy of heavy price falls and falling mortgage rates.
Real housing prices in New Zealand have fallen back to pre-pandemic levels.
Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro shows below that mortgage repayments as a percentage of household income have fallen from around 50% to just over 35%.
Logically, the improving relative affordability of New Zealand housing should discourage the brain drain to Australia.
