Australian housing poised for new price boom

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Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) has published its daily dwelling value index for 31 May, which covers Australia’s five major city housing markets.

Dwelling values rose by 0.5% in May at the aggregate 5-city level, with all major markets recording solid increases:

Cotality May 2025

Over the May quarter, dwelling values rose by 1.2%, with Brisbane (1.6%) leading the way, followed by Perth (1.4%) and Adelaide (1.3%). Melbourne (1.1%) and Sydney (1.0%) recorded slower growth:

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Cotality May quarter

While the quarterly pace of growth remained modest at 1.2%, prices have accelerated.

The following chart plots Cotality’s daily dwelling values index on a rolling 28-day basis. You can see the sharp acceleration in growth across the various markets in May in anticipation of the RBA’s 0.25% rate cut:

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Cotality 28-day change

The rebound in dwelling value growth is especially obvious when we focus on Sydney and Melbourne:

Cotality 28-day change
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The price rebound has been matched in the auction market, which has recorded its highest clearance rate since mid-2024 across the combined capital cities:

Auctions versus house prices

As shown above, auction clearance rates typically mirror price growth.

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The latest pricing from the futures market tips another three 0.25% rate cuts this year, which would lower the official cash rate to 3.10%.

RBA rate tracker

If these rate cuts come to fruition, they would stimulate buyer demand and propel home prices higher.

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The Albanese government’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers is then scheduled to take effect from 1 January 2026, which will further lift demand and prices.

Interest rate cuts and Labor’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers will ignite another upswing in Australian home prices.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.