I was wrong to have written off Peter Dutton and the Coalition.

On Thursday night, Dutton gave his budget reply speech. And while there were some minor things I disagreed with, I believe he got the biggest policy issues mostly right.

Below are the announcements I liked, followed by those I didn’t.

Liked alot:

East Coast Gas Reservation:

First and foremost, Peter Dutton promised to impose an East Coast gas reservation policy if elected. Below are the highlights of the policy from his speech [my emphasis].

Gas is key in out country, as it is around the developed world, to manufacturing, making electricity, and keeping the lights on…

We now know that in our country, Victoria is about to spend money building an import terminal to import gas into Victoria…

The only way to drive down power prices quickly is to ramp-up domestic gas production.

Tonight, I announce our National Gas Plan.

This plan will prioritise domestic gas supply, address shortfalls, and reduce energy prices for Australians.

This all about ensuring Australian gas is for Australians.

We will immediately introduce an east coast gas reservation.

This will require a proportion – between 50-100 petajoules of spot cargo exports – to be delivered to the domestic market.

This will secure an additional 10 to 20 per cent of the east coast’s demand – gas which would otherwise be exported for use in other markets for consumers in those countries.

But our gas needs to be first and foremost for our people.

Gas sold on the domestic market will be de-coupled from overseas markets to protect Australia from international price shocks.

And this will drive down new wholesale domestic gas prices from around $14 per gigajoule to under $10 per gigajoule.

This is just the start…

We will halve approval times.

We will immediately audit development-ready projects with a focus on the southern states.

We will accelerate new investment in gas projects by reinstating a $300 million Strategic Basin Plan and include gas in the Capacity Investment Scheme.

We will invest $1 billion into a Critical Gas Infrastructure Fund to increase gas pipeline and storage capacity.

We will put in place ‘use it or lose it’ stipulations for gas drilling companies – so offshore gas fields are not locked-up for years.

And we will ensure we will have a fit-for-purpose gas trigger to safeguard supply.

This plan, Mr Speaker, will deliver lower wholesale gas prices which will flow through the economy.

Our National Gas Plan is expected to push prices down for new gas sales to below $10 per gigajoule – compared to the $14 in the market today.

Sure, you can nitpick that the price target of $10 a gigajoule is too high (it should be less than $8), or that the reservation won’t apply to existing contracts. But this is a massive intervention in the East Coast gas market that MacroBusiness has lobbied for a decade.

On policy, we should never let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

On this issue alone, I would vote for the Coalition at the upcoming election.

Immigration cuts:

Peter Dutton reiterated his promise to cut the permanent migrant intake by 25% to 140,000 over the first two years and to lower the number of student visa holders.

Under the Coalition, we will cut the migration intake to free up housing and restore the great Australian dream of home ownership.

We will cut the permanent migration program by 25 per cent.

We will ban foreign investors and temporary residents from purchasing existing Australian homes for a period of two years.

We will set stricter caps on foreign students to relieve stress on rental markets.

Sure, Dutton has squibbed on setting a target for net overseas migration, which he later promised to provide before the election.

However, the Coalition remains the only major party offering lower immigration.

Somewhat Liked:

Cutting waste:

These issues are far less important to me. However, Dutton promised to cut boondoggle funding to renewable projects.

We will end the reckless $20 billion Rewiring the Nation Fund…

We will scrap Labor’s nearly $14 billion of production tax credits for green hydrogen because it is not going to work.

Dutton also promised to cut the federal bureaucracy so that money can be invested in front-line public services:

We will reverse Labor’s increase of 41,000 Canberra-based public servants – saving $7 billion a year.

That’s money we can provide back to the Australian people in frontline services.

The growth rate of public servants under this Government in Canberra is about three times it was under the Rudd-Gillard Government.

Cutting waste in the bureaucracy is positive, as long as these workers are not merely replaced with consultants.

Cleaning up the construction sector:

Dutton promised to clean up corruption in the construction sector, which is a positive move:

The construction industry watchdog will be restored – so that we can have safety again on big building sites.

New anti-racketeering laws will be legislated.

And a dedicated AFP-led taskforce will tackle the criminal elements in our building sector that are ripping off Australians and undermining productivity.

Don’t care:

• Promise to proceed with nuclear power. I am agnostic on nuclear. I want affordable and reliable power and do not believe that a mostly renewables system can provide this. The volume of investment in transmission and storage for reneawables is too great. However, I am also unsure of the economics of nuclear (I have an open mind and hope to be convinced). I believe that Australia should simply use what it already has in abundance – i.e., coal and gas, mixed with renewables already built.
• Scrapping the $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund. 

Disagree:

• Halving fuel excise. I disagree with this policy as it will narrow the tax base, making it more reliant on personal income taxes.
• Allowing first home buyers to access up to $50,000 of their super for a home deposit. This will be inflationary for home prices and self-defeating from an affordability perspective.

Conclusion:

Peter Dutton won me over when he announced East Coast gas reservation. While there are details to be worked out, this represented a massive policy shift in the right direction, which will hopefully draw Labor out on the issue.

Dutton’s announced immigration cuts, while not enough, are icing on the cake for me.

I always vote for minor parties first. But the Coalition has my preference above Labor and the Greens.

I am interested in readers’ thoughts about Peter Dutton’s announcements.