Don’t trust the budget’s migration numbers

Friday 28 March 2025

Recall that Tuesday’s federal budget forecast a significant slowing of net overseas migration over the forward estimates.

Net overseas migration is projected to slow to 335,000 this financial year, then to 260,000 in 2025-26, and 225,000 in 2026-27.

Source: March 2025 federal budget

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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.