Canada serves economic warning for Australia

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Geoff Russ from Canada’s National Post penned a cautionary tale on how out-of-control immigration has degraded Canada’s economy and living standards.

Canadian population growth vs housing supply

The immigration influx, which drove a record 1.2 million increase in Canada’s population in 2023-04, “rocked Canada”, according to Russ:

Immigration-driven demand for housing and services vastly outstripped the supply of both, resulting in a palpable decline in affordability and access to health care, schooling and social services.

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Between 2015 and 2024, Canada’s ranking in the Human Development Index plummeted from 9th to 18th, while the country fell behind Italy in the average growth of real GDP per capita…

Increasing their {immigrant’s] numbers in such a deliberate fashion failed to make Canada more competitive or improve the lives of its citizens…

There has not been a meaningful increase in the numbers of engineers, physicians, and software developers. In essential services like health care, the ratio of family doctors in relation to the general population has actually worsened.

Rather, Canada has imported hundreds of thousands of unskilled international students who stock shelves, deliver food, and flip hamburgers for minimum-wage…

This is not an economic climate that breeds dynamism or healthy growth…

Canadian real GDP per capita

Australia charted a similar, albeit less extreme, course to Canada, led by unskilled international students.

International student enrolments

As a result, Australia experienced its largest immigration surge in its history, placing extreme strain on the rental market, infrastructure, productivity, and living standards.

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Australian population change

Just like in Canada, a serious mismatch developed between Australian population demand and housing supply, which sent rents soaring.

Median advertised rents
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Australia’s productivity and real per capita GDP growth have also collapsed.

Productivity and GDP

Both countries are now dealing with housing crises that will take years (if ever) to overcome, as well as stagnant productivity and falling living standards.

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GDP per hour worked

Both nations have experienced severe “capital shallowing” as a result of population increase caused by high immigration rates surpassing investment in business, infrastructure, and housing.

Australian capital shallowing

Australian capital shallowing

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Canadian capital shallowing

Canadian capital shallowing

Canada and Australia are textbook examples of what not to do if the goal is to improve the living standards of the incumbent population.

The major difference is that the Canadian Liberal government recognised the error in its ways, introduced sweeping immigration cuts, and has targeted just 0.3% population growth over three years.

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Canada immigration cuts

This policy has already started to yield positive results, as Canada’s population growth is now aligning with its construction capacity.

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Australia should emulate Canada and introduce drastic immigration cuts that aim for quality over quantity.

Otherwise, it will continue to experience severe housing shortages, capital shallowing, and stalling productivity and living standards.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.