New Zealand is experiencing a significant outflow of citizens, as illustrated by the following chart from Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro.
There was a net migration loss of 48,000 New Zealand citizens in the year to November 2024.
This outflow of citizens has driven net overseas migration to below-average levels.
Economists have warned that New Zealand could soon become a net exporter of people if current trends persist.
“In October last year, Infometrics warned that annual net migration could turn negative in 2026/27 as migration flows shifted around again – that’d be consistent with net monthly outflows towards the end of 2025”, Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen said.
“Over the last six months, monthly net migration has averaged around 2336 more people coming in than leaving each month – that’s much lower than through 2023, when monthly net migration averaged over 10,000 more people coming into New Zealand than leaving, and also higher than in 2017-2018 before Covid-19 impacts hit the migration figures, when monthly net migration was over 4000 per month”.
“Migrant arrivals are also falling back from highs, as there are simply not as many jobs available in New Zealand, and a lot of competition from workers already in New Zealand looking to get into the jobs on offer, meaning less need to bring in talent from overseas”, Olsen said.
BNZ chief economist Mike Jones agreed there was a reasonable chance that migration could turn negative.
“The monthly net migration figures are always pretty choppy and we’re currently sailing not that far above zero at a trend net inflow of about 2000 people per month”, he said. “We could see that drop away a little as we head into the autumn and winter months”.
Most of the New Zealand citizens who have departed have come to Australia.
Statistics New Zealand noted a provisional annual net migration loss of 30,100 people to Australia.
On Tuesday, Statistics New Zealand noted that the unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in Q4 2024, up from 4.8% in Q3 2024.
This compares to Australia’s unemployment rate of 3.9% in Q4 2024.
The widening gap between New Zealand’s and Australia’s unemployment rates is the primary driver of the surge in migration from New Zealand to Australia.
Kiwis are pursuing comparatively more favourable economic conditions in Australia.
