Indians drive record surge in temporary visas

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The Department of Home Affairs released temporary visa data for the September quarter of 2024, revealing that there were 2,463,600 temporary visa holders in Australia, excluding visitors, at the end of September.

This was an all-time high for the September quarter and a 163,600 rise over the same time in 2023. There were also nearly 500,000 more temporary visas on issue in Australia than in September 2019 before the pandemic.

As Justin Fabo of Antipodean Macro shows below, September also set a new record for temporary migration in seasonally adjusted terms.

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Temporary visa holders

To no one’s surprise, India has led the surge in temporary migration since the pandemic began. There were 300,000 Indians holding temporary visas in the September quarter (excluding visitors), up from 200,000 in September 2019.

Temporary visa holder by nation
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Turning to the individual visa classes, there were 674,600 student visas issued at the end of September 2024, a 10,400 increase over the previous year and a new high for September.

Student visas

Graduate visas increased to a record high of 228,300 in September 2024, up 35,000 from the previous year and more than doubling the pre-Covid level.

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Temporary graduate visas

There were 284,600 temporary employment visas on issue in September 2024, down 69,800 from the previous year.

Employment visas
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Working holiday maker visas increased to a new high of 192,600 in September 2024, up 47,900 from the previous year.

Working holiday visas

Finally, there were 338,300 temporary bridging visas on issue in September 2024, up 147,000 from the previous year.

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Temporary bridging visas

Justin Fabo’s next chart shows that the strongest growth in temporary visas since Q3 2019 has occurred in bridging and graduate visas (both up by 134,000).

Change in temporary visa holders
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Fabo’s next chart compares the various temporary visa streams in quarterly seasonally adjusted terms.

Temporary visa by class

Even though student visas have peaked, the rise in bridging visas, which is partly due to students seeking asylum, has more than offset their decline.

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This growth in bridging visas is undermining the federal government’s crackdown against non-genuine students as well as clogging up the appeals process.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.