Monthly data from the Department of Home Affairs, reproduced below by Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro, shows that the number of temporary visas on issue in Australia (excluding visitors) reached a new high in August, but growth has flattened out:
The number of temporary student visa holders has flattened out just below 700,000, and has fallen from peak in seasonally adjusted terms:
Offshore student visa grants have fallen back to pre-pandemic levels, whereas onshore visa grants have fallen just below pre-pandemic levels:
The decline in onshore student visa grants likely relates to policy changes preventing course hopping, alongside other tightening.
However, rather than returning to their home countries, former students appear to be applying for asylum, as evident by the surge in bridging visas:
As illustrated above, the number of bridging visas has surged by more than 100,000 over the past year to around 325,000.
In late June, The AFR reported that the surge in bridging visas was being driven by increasing visa refusal rates for former students already in Australia. This has driven a spike in appeals to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal.
“This is likely to be the result of the removal of unrestricted work rights plus additional funding for immigration compliance work”, Abul Rizvi noted.
“If the application rate remains around 3000 per month, the backlog will continue to grow strongly. That would undermine the government’s policy to reduce net migration”, he said.
Rizvi added that asylum claims would continue to grow as a result of restrictions on visa-hopping and the government’s caps on student visas.
The SMH View also warned that “the uptick in asylum seekers who obtain visas to enter Australia under the guise of studying feeds concerns the overall system is ripe for rorting”.
In short, rejected student visa holders are moving to bridging visas and extending their stay in Australia. And this is harming the federal government’s crackdown on dodgy student visas by clogging the appeals process.
