Canada’s mass unemployment lesson for Australia

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Canada recorded the developed world’s fastest population growth last year, with the nation’s population growing by 1,272,000 people (3.2%) in 2023, driven by unprecedented net overseas migration of 1,241,000.

Based on official labour force data, Canada’s population growth has continued to break records in 2024, as illustrated in the following chart from the National Bank of Canada:

Canada's population growth accelerates

This extreme population growth has created the worst housing shortage on record, with population demand easily exceeding supply.

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Canada's housing supply deficit

As a result, Canada’s rental vacancy rate has collapsed to a record low, while rental prices have skyrocketed:

Canadian population growth and rents
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The bigger concern relates to Canada’s economy.

Canada’s extreme immigration-driven population growth has kept the overall economy growing slowly:

Population drives Canada's growth

However, per capita growth is falling fast, suggesting Canadian living standards are declining. In fact, Canada has recorded zero improvement in per capita GDP in around eight years:

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Canadian living standards

Canada’s labour market is also deteriorating as record labour supply from net overseas migration swamps job creation across the economy:

Canadian labour supply and demand
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This surge in labour supply amid tepid demand has lifted Canada’s official unemployment rate to 6.1%:

Canadian unemployment

This rise in unemployment has been especially detrimental to new migrants and young Canadians seeking entry to the labour market:

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Unemployed finding work

Earlier this year, viral videos emerged of long queues of international students seeking entry-level jobs:

Canadian students lining up for jobs

International students in Canada line up for entry level jobs.

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This week, a Canadian colleague of a reader sent a video of a line-up for a security guard job in Toronto, which really hammers the point home:

Line up for jobs in Toronto
byu/Unusual-State1827 inCanadaHousing2

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While Australia is nowhere near as bad as Canada, there are similarities.

We, too, are running the largest immigration program in our history, are mired in a deep per capita recession, and are experiencing our worst rental crisis and housing shortage in living memory.

Australian historical NOM

Australia’s labour market is also starting to crack amid the deluge of jobseekers (new migrants) competing for fewer available jobs:

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Unemployment vs job applications

Canada is living proof that Australia’s economic situation could deteriorate if the Australian government continues to pursue the same braindead mass migration policies as Canada.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.