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US Economy
Previewing US inflation
The big one tonight is US inflation.
David Llewellyn-Smith
6 days ago
3
Trump polling rallies into debate
It appears the Kamala Harris polling honeymoon is over: It is across the board: Betting markets have Trump ahead again: Swing states are too close to call: All a bit odd given what is happening to oil.
David Llewellyn-Smith
6 days ago
37
25 or 50 for Fed? Does it matter?
TSLombard says 25bps.
David Llewellyn-Smith
8 days ago
3
Harris pops the boy in the bubble
Goldman sees a Harris victory now. Where things stand: Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by around 1.5pp in national polling averages and is very narrowly ahead in the swing state that would provide the winning electoral vote (currently this appears to be Pennsylvania).
David Llewellyn-Smith
26 days ago
14
What are junk spreads telling us?
Morgan Stanley with the note.
David Llewellyn-Smith
27 days ago
1
Kamala rebuilds the blue wall
It’s still early days, and it’s still a honeymoon, but Kamala Harris is on a roll.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 month ago
23
Kamala Harris surges to frontrunner
Democrats now have a handy lead in White House polling.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 month ago
31
Harris polling surges
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 months ago
14
Kamala’s crappy polls
Goldman with the note. President Joe Biden exited the 2024 presidential race today (July21) and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 months ago
23
Biden goes, endorses Harris
The news this morning is that POTUS Joe Biden will serve out his term but will NOT contest the Democratic nomination for the November election.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 months ago
37
El Trumpo shot
Here’s a thread for y’all on the failed assassination of Donald Trump.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 months ago
62
Previewing US inflation
Morgan Stanley with the note. We expect Core CPI inflation at 0.27% (0.2%M consensus, 3.5%Y), higher than May’s weak print but still the second lowest read this year.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 months ago
Can Biden be replaced?
Credit Agricole with the note.
David Llewellyn-Smith
3 months ago
18
All hail King Trump
Here is the full dissent by Justice Sonia Sotomayor from the overnight decision by the thoroughly partisan US Supreme Court to grant US Presidents immunity from prosecution while in office.
David Llewellyn-Smith
3 months ago
34
US CPI preview
Morgan Stanley with the note.
David Llewellyn-Smith
3 months ago
1
Albert Edwards: US recession building
Albert Edwards at Societe General is always worth reading.
David Llewellyn-Smith
3 months ago
1
Does the Trump conviction change his chances?
After the conviction of Donald Trump on 34 counts of illegally silencing former prostitute Stormy Daniels, election odds have first swung away from Trump, then back to unchanged.
David Llewellyn-Smith
4 months ago
16
Biden betting narrows
Goldman with the wrap of US betting markets.
David Llewellyn-Smith
4 months ago
4
US CPI preview
Goldman is less dovish than some. nWe expect a 0.28% increase in April core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.61% (vs. 3.6% consensus). We expect a 0.37% increase in April headline CPI (vs. 0.4% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.42% (vs. 3.4% consensus).
David Llewellyn-Smith
4 months ago
4
SLOOS collides with US small business
David Llewellyn-Smith
4 months ago
Albert Edwards: US recesssion anyone?
Albert Edwards at Credit Suisse is making plenty of bearish sense.
David Llewellyn-Smith
4 months ago
Betting markets back Biden
Goldman with the update.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 months ago
10
US CPI preview
Goldman with the note. We expect a 0.27% increase in March core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.70% (vs. 3.7% consensus). We expect a 0.29% increase in March headline CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.37% (vs. 3.4% consensus).
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 months ago
1
The future belongs to America
HSBC with the note.
David Llewellyn-Smith
6 months ago
11
Trying (and failing) to correct
The Market Ear with the latest equity positioning.
David Llewellyn-Smith
6 months ago
3
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