Markets

Every time another tech giant announces billions of dollars in spending on AI infrastructure, the same question comes to mind: are we witnessing the next great technological revolution, or simply watching another investment bubble inflate?

From the Market Ear: That Upside Force Nobody owned enough upside, and the market is still paying the price for it.

TME with the charts.

Gold is printing an ominous double top and sitting on some meaty supports.

Charts from TME.

There is a lot of paranoia about AI.

Silver surfed a massive wave, then wiped out.

If you listen to the masters of the financial universe, a revolution is upon us.

From the Market Ear: Stretch-marks Eight straight green months.

From the Market Ear: The vol smash All volatilities have been reset lately, but NASDAQ volatility remains way above year lows, VIX is close to year lows and Russell volatility, RVX, is practically at year lows.

In the long history of financial markets, there have been all manner of hot assets; in the Netherlands in the 1630s, it was tulip bulbs, in the 1720s Britain, it was shares in the South Sea Company, and today the hottest asset on the market is anything to do with AI.

From the Market Ear: Waiting SPX remains stuck inside the range that has been in place since mid-September.

From the Market Ear: Nothing NASDAQ NASDAQ is in the middle of the range, trading at the same levels we traded at in late Nov, early Nov, late Oct, early Oct…you get the point.

The iron ore price has risen by about 7% so far in 2025, but CBA head of commodities Vivek Dhar warns that oversupply concerns could soon see the price of the steel input fall below $US$100 per tonne.

From the Market Ear: SOX – from sexy to soggy Over the weekend we flagged the risk of a massive SOX double top.

I’ve been seeing a particular type of chart circulate more frequently: the one plotting the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio against the market’s subsequent 10-year returns.

By the Market Ear: AI changes DB’s chart of the day tracks 23 AI-related stocks, comparing year-to-date performance up to 29 October with returns over the roughly six weeks since.

From the Market Ear: Big in small Russell extending the break out move.

From the Market Ear Two weeks of “agony” Two weeks ago, positioning was falling, HFs were net sellers, hedging was picking up, CTAs were cutting exposure, and Retail flow was fading.

From the Market Ear: Got commodities? “Trump runs it hot, oil bounces post Russia-Ukraine fix, China keeps yuan cheap, soon all the commodity charts will look like gold…” (BofA) Energy XLE has been stuck inside the same range since March 2022.

Every cycle has a bellwether.

In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, looks at whether NVIDIA’s upcoming results could rattle confidence in the AI boom — unpacking what investors should watch for as the market’s largest stock reports, and how the outcome might reshape expectations for the broader AI trade.

The Market Ear has more.

I spend a lot of time asking one simple question: Can earnings keep doing the heavy lifting?