Australian Shares

The Market EAr on the mechanical bull. Stuck, but… SPX is still stuck in some sort of range, but note the short term trend line comes in at the 5700 level (futures).

The Market Ear on the stocks stall.

The Market Ear on the rally nobody wanted.

Risk markets are having a solid finish to the trading week while recent news that the Chinese may actually be open to talking about tariffs with the US, plus the Canadian auto industry seemingly getting another exemption on parts, with futures indicating an even better start in Europe.

The Trump regime continues to goose the stock market with non-existent reports of trade deals with “hundreds of countries” while the economic reality continues to set in as the latest initial jobless claims spiked while the ISM manufacturing survey went into contraction territory.

Risk markets are still running on hopium as US officials admit there’s no talking going on whatsoever with China (who are having a week long holiday anyway – call back later Donny!) while the Bank of Japan held fire in today’s meeting which sent Yen selling off and stocks lifting higher.

The Market Ear on the rally.

The latest US GDP print for Q1 came in worse than expected, sending Wall Street down 2% at one stage before the hopium set in as markets recovered towards the close on reports of a possible Canadian deal with the new PM.

Some interesting local and Chinese reports were absorbed by markets in Asia today, with all eyes really on Friday’s US non farm payroll print and of course, any more waffles coming from the Oval Office about “deals” around Trump’s tariffs.

A better night on Wall Street due to better earnings reports and by absorbing the Canadian general election outcome.

Risk markets are trying to digest quite a bit of macro news today with the Canadian election resulting in a Liberal victory, while a small reprieve in auto tariffs by the Trump regime looks possible amid the UK/EU announcing what could be a reversal in post Brexit trade barriers.

An uneasy night on Wall Street with minor moves as more earnings reports filter through amid more bluster from the Trump regime about nonexistent Chines tariff negotiations helping push USD lower against most of the majors as Pound Sterling hits a new three year high amid a UK/EU detente on trade.

The Market Ear on the bear market bounce.

Wall Street ended the trading week on a strong note, continuing the rebound from recent lows after more flopping on tariffs from the Trump regime however a weekend Time interview and further comments out of the White House could unsettle markets again.

Risk markets are still in a positive mood generally speaking as they digest the possible weakening of Chinese tariffs but of course the Orange Mussolini is still a bit confused on what he wants to do at the granular level with more doublespeak during the session.

As the Trump regime folds faster than a dodgy poor chair on its tariff tirade against China, risk sentiment is bouncing back across most but not all markets with US and European stocks surging overnight while the USD firmed against the undollars.

In surprise to no one, the Trump regime has wavered first as it signals “very nice” but probably non-existent trade talks with China and nullifies suggestions that Fed Chair Powell’s head is on the chopping block.

The Market Ear with the setup. Chop Our base case remains intact: this market needs to heal and it will take time before we get a new direction. Expect more choppiness. Resistance levels: 5450 (21 day), range highs at 5550.

I am of the school of thought that markets like to fill gaps.

Risk sentiment continued its decline over the Easter weekend with Wall Street snapping back nearly 3% lower overnight as it appears all the puffery around trade deals from the Trump regime is exactly that – hot air!

Volatility in equity markets is ramping up after another round of Trump tariff nonsense against China while a miss or two amongst US tech stocks is not helping risk sentiment with S&P and Eurostoxx futures sharply down going into tonight’s session.