Australian Shares

Risk markets are still in a positive mood generally speaking as they digest the possible weakening of Chinese tariffs but of course the Orange Mussolini is still a bit confused on what he wants to do at the granular level with more doublespeak during the session.

As the Trump regime folds faster than a dodgy poor chair on its tariff tirade against China, risk sentiment is bouncing back across most but not all markets with US and European stocks surging overnight while the USD firmed against the undollars.

In surprise to no one, the Trump regime has wavered first as it signals “very nice” but probably non-existent trade talks with China and nullifies suggestions that Fed Chair Powell’s head is on the chopping block.

The Market Ear with the setup. Chop Our base case remains intact: this market needs to heal and it will take time before we get a new direction. Expect more choppiness. Resistance levels: 5450 (21 day), range highs at 5550.

I am of the school of thought that markets like to fill gaps.

Risk sentiment continued its decline over the Easter weekend with Wall Street snapping back nearly 3% lower overnight as it appears all the puffery around trade deals from the Trump regime is exactly that – hot air!

Volatility in equity markets is ramping up after another round of Trump tariff nonsense against China while a miss or two amongst US tech stocks is not helping risk sentiment with S&P and Eurostoxx futures sharply down going into tonight’s session.

The Market Ear on the bear.

Risk sentiment is flat lining again as stock market volatility moves lower but all eyes still remain on US Treasuries and the USD itself with Swiss Franc now taking the lead while Euro took a slight back seat on poor sentiment readings in Germany.

Volatility in equity markets is slowly cooling down and indeed spreading to currency markets with some range trading across the Asian session today although the Kiwi is making big gains against the USD while the Australian dollar remains well above the 63 cent level this afternoon.

The Market Ear on the great flush.

Risk sentiment is slowly lifting and stock volatility moving lower but all eyes must remain on global bond markets and the USD as the big shift is happening beyond the equity market headlines.

Finally a relatively non-volatile trading session today although the newsflow remains weird with more Trumpian two-steps around tariffs on Chinese goods, while all eyes remain on the canary in the mine – the bond markets.

My favourite strategist is back.

The Market Ear on equities.

FT Alphaville wraps up the sell-side views on tariffs.

You can’t stop the bond music as we see seismic shifts in global trade and risk markets with the pressure on US Treasuries building further even as the Trump regime tries to backtrack its kindergarten level economic stupidity, while the Chinese, EU and Canada deftly move the chess pieces around the table.

The Market Ear on historical movements in safe havens.

The short covering rally on Wall Street quickly reversed as the insider traders made their profits while the rest of the risk complex gravely worked out that the end is still coming, 90 day stay of execution or not.

The Con Artist in Chief has dumped and pumped global stock markets with his near complete folding of the tariffs announced mere days (feels like months) ago, with huge rallies across Asian markets today as they play catchup to Wall Street.

The Market Ear on the crash up. Huge in SPX SPX futures rate of change (1day). Refinitiv NASDAQ’s upside force NASDAQ futures rate of change (1day) for the history books.