Australian Shares

The perfect bubble is here, says the Market Ear.

Sticky tariff induced inflation in the US overnight sent Wall Street lower as the expectation of rate cuts were diced as the latest PCE came in higher than expected.

As noted many times, the idiocy of the Australian economy often plays out in the singular goal of local fund managers.

  Wall Street failed to make new highs overnight as the Federal Reserve held fire on any interest rate cuts with European shares rallying instead as the USD soared to new heights against the major currency pairs.

Asian share markets are generally weaker across the board as risk markets try to absorb the impact of the latest trade “deal” from the Trump regime while also anticipating some pretty big macro and economic releases in the coming session.

Via the always excellent Charlie McElligott at Nomura. From Left-Tail To Risk-Tail… 1).

  Wall Street failed to make new highs overnight as risk markets await the looming Fed meeting and Friday’s jobs numbers amid absorbing the latest trade “frameworks of deals that likely won’t be respected” as peripheral nations still wait the 20-25% proposed tariff slog by the Trump regime, including Australia.

Asian share markets are generally weaker across the board as risk markets try to absorb the impact of the latest trade “deal” from the Trump regime while also anticipating some pretty big macro and economic releases in the coming session.

The Market Ear on the inflating bubble.

  The trade war is over and everything will be awesome according to US officials in the Trump regime as the EU seemingly caved in on their respective trade “deal” aka framework, which has sent the USD higher while leaving European stocks adrift in a sea of trouble.

Asian share markets are generally higher after news that the Trump regime has managed to secure the framework of a “deal” with the EU, even though it looks like resulting in massive tariffs for American importers.

Despite a dreadful durable goods order print on Friday night, Wall Street still pushed to new record highs as earnings are coming in solid as expected, helped by buybacks and the “Big Beautiful Bill” spending.

Risk markets were relatively benign overnight as the ECB meeting came and went without any movement in interest rates as expected while the latest US initial jobless claims didn’t surprise either with the USD putting in a very small rally after a week or more of weakness.

Asian share markets like other equities are doing the FOMO trade as it looks apparent that everyone is going to get a new baseline 10-15% tariff rate from the Trump regime with news that the EU is likely to be next, enshrining higher prices for US consumers for almost everything they buy.

Everything is awesome for stock markets as Wall Street pushed through more record highs as earnings surprised to the upside for everyone, except Tesla!

A better mood on Asian share markets today bolstered by the new US-Japan “deal” which sent Japanese stocks more than 2% higher but has resulted in pushback from US car makers due to the details surrounding metal tariffs.

The Market Ear says the latter.

Last night saw risk markets unable to make headway again, although European stocks sold off across the calendar as the lack of any progress on any trade deals with the Trump regime continues to weigh.

A soft risk taking mood on Asian share markets today following yesterday’s quiet sessions as concerns continue over the inability of the Trump regime to get any trade “deals” cut before the August 1st deadline, with India and Japan effectively ruling out any such notion.

Last night saw risk markets barely move on a quiet economic calendar or geopolitical catalysts with only the USD having any reactions as continued trade concerns with the Trump regime pushing for a baseline 15-20% tariff on all EU products sending King Dollar down against everything.

Asian share markets are quite mixed in the first trading session of the week as concerns over the Trump regimes bullying of the EU in its “negotiations” over the looming August 1st trade deal are spilling over.

The bubble is back. The Market Ear. Basically buying UBS sees CTAs doubling their equity exposure, adding $60-70bln over the next 2 weeks. They are basically buyers in all scenarios, unless SPX turns below 6k. Source: UBS Retail buying UBS on retail buying (proxied by ETF action): 1.

Friday night saw risk markets hinge on more trade concerns with the Trump regime pushing for a baseline 15-20% tariff on all EU products while at the same time obfuscating any real chance of a deal with Japan, which went into the final session of the trading week under an election cloud.

Most share markets in Asia are lifting going into the final trading session of the week although Japanese bourses are cautious given the domestic election this weekend and the concern over inflation after today’s June print.