Commodities

Steel and iron ore futures are range trading.

In October, Chinese steel production rebounded.

Steel futures are fading away.

Those hoping that Donald J.

Gold is a nice snapshot of everything that is going wrong with commodities today.

Steel futures have not updated.

Rebar held up Friday. While iron ore did not. More Chinese yawnulus. From ANZ. The National People’s Congress (NPC) standing committee meeting concluded with a large-scale debt swap program as we expected.

Stele is going nowhere.

SHFE didn’t panic yesterday.

The Chinese stimulus keeps getting downgraded.

SHFE sagged Friday: Mad Dalian too: The steel output bounce is over: Rebar is stuffed: Flat steel growth is over: We are entering the seasonal strong suit: But, if we do get a lift I would be looking at it as a chance to reload shorts.

SHFE has not yet given up hope: Dalian was not so lucky: The steel PMI improved some: This is related to a pre-stimulus pick-up in infrastructure seen in cement demand: I can’t find any reasons to be bullish.

SHFE is hanging in: Dalian too: But there’s not much the cheer about.

SHFE is going a second leg: With Dalian futures: The hope is captured by Goldman: NPC meeting November 4-8: The much anticipated bi-monthly National People’s Congress (NPC) standing committee meeting will take place during November 4-8. We expect the NPC to approve RMB1-2tn additional ultra-long-term central government special bond (ULT CGSB) issuance quota.

Friday saw a rebound in steel: And iron ore: After a series of stimulus positive comments about the forthcoming NPC scheduled immediately after the US election.

SHFE was down yesterday.

FMG’s Q1 production report is out and appeared decent on the surface regarding volumes but it did not take long to expose the problem: 83% price realisation is up 1% QoQ but is still poor and $83 per tonne is even poorer.

SHFE held on but SGX let go below $100: Mad Dalian is retracing at pace: Not much more to add today.

SHFE and SGX are stuck on a ledge: Mad Dalian likewise: There is no steel recovery coming, sorry.  WorldSteel: Africa produced 1.9 Mt in September 2024, up 2.6% on September 2023. Asia and Oceania produced 105.3 Mt, down 5.0%. The EU (27) produced 10.5 Mt, up 0.3%.

SHFE and SGX parted ways in the last 24 hours: Mad Dalian was thumped overnight: Near term, the steel market is still enjoying improved conditions: Daily average hot metal output gained for a seventh straight week, rising 0.5% to 2.34 million tons as of Oct.

SHFE was smashed Friday.

It had to come.

How to kill the iron ore price 101.