China Economy

The Chinese economy remains mired in a depression.

ANZ is excited. China: reflation kicks off China kicks off a reflation strategy, signalled by a mega hydropower project. The goal is to restore the inflation dynamics via supply-side tightening and creating new demand side. Producer price index (PPI) could turn positive soon due to rising commodity prices.

Goldman with the note. …the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs (CCFEA) meeting chaired by President Xi on July 1 called for building a “unified national market” to discourage local protectionism, as well as regulating disorderly price-cutting and excessive competition among producers.

China is not signalling imminent breakout stimulus.

As China’s property sector continues to deteriorate with each passing day, reports of renewed stimulus for the sector emerge every few months from the Chinese press or policymakers.

Nobody wants to talk about how bad it is because, you know, it’s China.

Let’s call it what it is: a recession.

This economy is not growing at 5% in anybody’s mind except for the CCP’s and its menagerie of grovellers.

Since the issues facing China’s property sector exploded into mainstream view in 2021, it has been a rollercoaster ride of different perspectives and scenarios on how it will all play out.

At the recent World Economic Forum’s (WEF) annual meeting at Tianjin, China, Chinese Premier Li Qiang pledged that China will become a “consumption powerhouse” capable of fuelling domestic and global growth.

Judging by the PMIs, the notion that China is growing at 5% is preposterous.

Three weeks ago, the Chinese government and the Trump administration came to a very rough agreement on trade, tariffs, and the supply of vital materials each side respectively controlled.

It’s the bust that keeps on giving.

ANZ has a good idea.

May Chinese credit was soft.

Chinese deflation marches on.

Chinese property is still stuffed.

Property market softened in April: The latest batch of property market data show some weakening in both price and activity.

Some more on sinking Chinese property today, a subject that just keeps on giving.

There is no end in sight for the Chinese property bust as prices keep falling.

You can’t keep a good Titanic up, and there’s no better example than Chinese property, which continues to sink despite Beijing’s next efforts.

There are hints of the trade shock landing on China but they are so far minor.

Commerzebank with the note. Manufacturing PMIs showed initial damage The official manufacturing PMI fell to contraction territory at 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, the lowest since December 2023 (Chart 1).

Time for more yawnzooka as Chinese property falls into a tariff hole.

Albert Edwards of Societe Generale famously coined the phrase “Ice Age” for the period leading up to and after the GFC.