China Economy

TS Lombard gives us the company view of the new Five Year Plan. First, consensus expectations for 2026 GDP are too bearish. Xi Jinping has recommitted the CCP to doubling 2020 per capita GDP by 2035 (just as we forecasted!) This entails a growth rate of ~4.6% yoy to reach that goal.

Credit Agricole has a wrap on the broader themes. China’s 4th Plenum will take place on 20-23 October to discuss the 15th Five-YearPlan (FYP), outlining China’s medium-term strategic plans for economic and social development in 2026-30.

The Chinese property crash is somewhere near the halfway point. Here is the raw data for Ssptember, Floor space sold: -10.5% yoy in September, vs. -10.3% yoy in August (value of sales:-11.8% yoy in September, vs. -13.8% yoy in August).

Are the US and China getting back together?

Chinese inflation remains bogged.

Not that it was ever really a serious push, and paltry efforts make for paltry returns.

Over the last 35 years, the contribution of manufacturing to Australia’s overall economic activity has declined.

In the years since China began its meteoric rise to become the world’s unrivalled manufacturing hyperpower, Beijing has increasingly used trade as a tool to exert pressure on companies or governments.

Back in the day, the iron ore trade was governed by annual contract negotiations between Australian miners and a collection of Chinese steel mills under the aegis of CISA.

Iron is hovering in some restocking episode.

Nobody is allowed to tell the truth about China, but I will.

Ferrous madness continues as steel margins collapse.

Over the last 25 years, China has undergone an absolute meteoric rise as an industrial and economic power, inadvertently dragging Australia along for the ride.

Everybody celebrate!

Since U.S.

Deutsche with a wrap of Chinese data: China’s economy activity slowed in July.

Bloomberg sees an endless Chinese property crash.

The Chinese economy remains mired in a depression.

ANZ is excited. China: reflation kicks off China kicks off a reflation strategy, signalled by a mega hydropower project. The goal is to restore the inflation dynamics via supply-side tightening and creating new demand side. Producer price index (PPI) could turn positive soon due to rising commodity prices.

Goldman with the note. …the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs (CCFEA) meeting chaired by President Xi on July 1 called for building a “unified national market” to discourage local protectionism, as well as regulating disorderly price-cutting and excessive competition among producers.

China is not signalling imminent breakout stimulus.

As China’s property sector continues to deteriorate with each passing day, reports of renewed stimulus for the sector emerge every few months from the Chinese press or policymakers.

Nobody wants to talk about how bad it is because, you know, it’s China.

Let’s call it what it is: a recession.

This economy is not growing at 5% in anybody’s mind except for the CCP’s and its menagerie of grovellers.