Australian interest rates

The likelihood of a near-term rate cut has been shattered with Wednesday’s Q3 CPI release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

RBA governor Michelle Bullock did a fireside chat last night, which was pretty dull but it did have a few moments of interest.

As we know, the RBA is intellectually bankrupt.

Roy Morgan Research has released a survey on mortgage stress, which shows that the lowest share of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ since February 2023, just prior to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) first rate hike.

So says Societe General.

The NAB survey out yesterday was not very encouraging.

This month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold the official cash rate at 3.60%, citing resurgent inflation risks.

Last week, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Michele Bullock was grilled by Greens senator Nick McKim about the RBA’s role in the housing crisis.

Australia’s ‘miracle’ jobs market has been a fool’s paradise.

The 2025 federal election campaign saw both sides admit that they wanted to see Australian home prices rise at a ‘sustainable rate’ from already record-high levels.

It appears that the government-funded jobs printer of the Albo era is slowing faster than the crushed private sector economy of the Albo era can catch up.

In last week’s monetary policy decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the official cash rate on hold, citing resurgent inflation risks.

Since the ABS started publicly releasing its monthly CPI in late October 2022, it has been a source of controversy and debate.

Following the release of the monthly CPI for August, headlines about skyrocketing electricity prices began to circulate, highlighting the 24.6% year-on-year increase in electricity costs.

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has chosen to hold the official cash rate at 3.60%, in what was a unanimous decision.

Eliza Owen, head of research at Cotality, has published the following chart on the amount of principal and interest repayments for the median Australian dwelling value ($848,858) under the Albanese government’s 5% deposit scheme for first-home buyers, which comes into effect on Wednesday.

Belinda Allen, CBA’s Head of Australian Economics, believes that the probability of further rate cuts has slimmed amid stronger domestic economic data and stubborn inflationary pressures.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the monthly CPI indicator for August, which recorded a jump in headline inflation to 3.0%—the highest result since July 2024.

Belinda Allen, CBA’s Head of Australian Economics, believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will only cut the official cash rate (OCR) once more in November, given the recent stronger run of economic data.

Financial markets have extinguished hopes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivering a rate cut at the September monetary policy meeting. Their pessimism is warranted given the stronger-than-expected recent run of data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Yesterday’s GDP figure has markets very upset.

Bloomberg has the scoop.

On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the monthly CPI inflation indicator for July, which recorded a jump in annual headline inflation to 2.8%, up from up a hefty 0.9% from the 1.9% reported in June.

Goldman with an important note.