Australian interest rates

Aussie inflation is beaten.

The Market Ear tackles the bond back-up.

The ANZ is doved up.

Wednesday’s monthly inflation data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suggested that underlying (trimmed mean) inflation is falling faster than projected by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

CBA economist Harry Ottley published the following chart showing the massive disconnect between dwelling approvals and the Albanese government’s 240,000 annual housing target. As you can see, annual approvals in the year to November (175,270) were around 25% below the 240,000 target.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the monthly inflation gauge for November, which recorded headline CPI inflation of 2.3% year-on-year, slightly above expectations of a 2.2% rise.

Analysis released last week by the Daily Telegraph showed that the average mortgage interest bill in Australia has tripled since the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) began raising interest rates in May 2022.

The median forecast of 36 economists polled by The Australian Financial Review is that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will begin reducing the cash rate at its board meeting on 19-20 May.

Below are CBA’s and Westpac’s November CPI Previews.

It is fair to say that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would already be cutting interest rates if not for the nation’s low unemployment rate of 3.9%.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal government undertook a “very robust and very consultative” process to select the members of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) two new boards, which will come into effect on 1 March 2025.

Financial markets have fully priced in dual interest rate cuts at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) board meetings in April and May after the central bank adopted a more dovish tone in Tuesday’s monetary policy statement.

Cut the rates!

It has been obvious for months that the Australian economy is returning to pre-COVID form of lowflation led by weak wages.

At today’s monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the official cash rate unchanged at 4.35%.

He’s cut his “two more two more rate hikes” outlook but bullhawk Warren Hogan continues to screech.

This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its monetary policy decision, which is likely to be a straightforward hold.

How did anyone ever get on with AFR journalism when it was wrong and a day late?

Wages have been pancaked for six months in the national accounts. Westpac. Cost pressures continue to moderate as the impact of the larger than average 2022-23 minimum and award wage increase roll out of annual calculations. Average (non-farm) earnings per hour moderated to 3.2%yr, from 6.5%yr in the June quarter.

The revolt is building against Michele Bullhawk’s Psycho RBA.

On Monday, the Melbourne Institute (MI) monthly inflation gauge was released, which showed that inflationary pressure remained well contained in November.