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Goldman has been pretty good on the Chinese property crash, being more bearish than most. But it’s not been bearish enough.
China’s property downturn is now in its sixth year. While we had projected then property sector’s drag to real GDP growth to narrow somewhat from last year to this year, most housing activity indicators have been much weaker than anticipated so far this year.
In addition, the recently announced shift from presales to completed-home sales implies tighter developer funding and lower property investment over the next few years.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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