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Regular readers will know that I basically believe that AI is only the latest iteration of a structurally deflationary environment, regularly disrupted by an inflationary pushback in the form of disintegrating globalisation.
Currently, my base case is bearish for most assets due to the war in Iran and its associated energy shock, which I see as only half over, at best.
However, there are bull cases, and today we catch a glimpse of how they may play out.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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