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Make of it what you will.
- Overnight: Despite seriously escalating rhetorical (“blowing the shit out of Iran” and take over Kharg Island) and kinetic action once again overnight, oil prices only managed modest gains as traders now seem reassured by reports (Trump) that an increasing number of oil tankers are sneaking through the Strait (with US help).
- 1030ET Oil plunges as TACO Thursday sparks kneejerk response (Trump cancels overnight strikes, tells NYPost ‘deal is pretty much wrapped up’ … “time and place of the signing to be announced shortly”.
- 1115ET Oil stabilizes as Israel and Iran deny any imminent deal as FARS reports IRAN HAS NOT YET APPROVED ANY TEXT FOR AGREEMENT WITH US
- 1520ET Oil extended its decline after CBS reported that US-IRAN MOU LIKELY TO BE SIGNED NEXT WEEK
- 1530ET Oil tumbled further after Trump says WE JUST MADE A GREAT SETTLEMENT OF WAR WITH IRAN
This is the 38th time a deal has been declared imminent. So far as I can tell, the two sides are not even talking, except through mediators like Pakistan, who are sounding desperate.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.