These are more soft prints, but they add up.
ANZ job ads stalled yesterday.
SEEK job ads are down 0.4 per month for the last seven in a row.
Higher unemployment is ahead.
There is no danger of a wage breakout.
Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation is not encouraging.
But it is all supply-side, and making room for Trump and Israel’s stupid war doesn’t make much monetary policy sense when, within a month, Brent will go to $200 as OECD tank bottoms come into view, and we will have to begin rationing diesel, directly cutting off economic activity.
There is a much greater chance of the RBA holding today than markets are pricing in.
The last hike only got up to 5-4, and everything has worsened since then, with the hikes already made yet to fully impact as the global crisis deepens.
There is not much reason to hike today unless you want to make a bad situation worse.
