China’s monstrous steel crash

Sunday 16 November 2025

The ferrous complex remains paralysed by overly high iron ore prices. I have switched to Shanghai HRC (purple) prices from the national average, which may help explain some of the stickiness in iron ore prices.

Despite the recent price falls in steel inputs, steel remains unprofitable.

Production is being forced lower.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.