Wages should be firm according to the latest Indeed job ad index.
ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads declined 1.4% m/m in February, but this follows an upwardly revised 1.3% m/m rise in January.
In trend terms, the series was down 0.3% m/m.
ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads is down 9.2% annually.
The series is just 0.9% higher than its low in August 2024 and has remained within a tight range of 2.1pts in the prior six months.
While ANZ-Indeed Job Ads have been relatively stable since August, that hasn’t been true regionally.
Job Ads in Victoria and Tasmania have fallen considerably over that time frame, offset by gains in Queensland and Western Australia.
Since August, Job Ads have increased in around 60% of sectors, led by strong gains in food service, management and cleaning & sanitation roles.
It’s no wonder wage growth and inflation are falling away. Not only do we have exaggerated job ads owing to the NDIS informal to formal switch, and an inundation of Untouchables, but we now have a boom in toilet cleaning.
This is the immigration-led, labour market expansion growth model at its finest. Jobs everywhere, but not any self-respecting underpaid Aussie would do!
Little wonder, then, that the Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge barely budged at 0.2% in February, with the annual rate easing 10bps to 2.2%.
The trimmed-mean gauge fell 0.1% mom, with the annual rate easing 30bps to 1.8%yoy.
This is what you get when you have an inherently deflationary immigration-led, labour market expansion economic model combined with a central bank that has cancelled the word “immigration” from all thought and deed.
