This is not a debate. It is propaganda from both sides.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has claimed his nuclear energy policy would cut power bills by 44 per cent, but analysis by the renewables sector warns it could actually drive up electricity costs by more than $1000 a year for millions of Australians with rooftop solar panels.
Modelling commissioned by the Coalition for its plan to build the reactors by the mid-2040s asserts total costs will be 44 per cent lower compared to the mass rollout of renewables. The same modelling did not estimate a reduction in retail power prices.
…The modelling, however, has come under fire for its underlying assumptions, including an effective lid on the amount of renewable energy. Renewable energy under the Coalition’s modelling reaches 54 per cent of the total power market by 2050. By the end of last year, it had already hit 46 per cent.
Research to be released on Monday by the Smart Energy Council warns that millions of rooftop solar systems would have to shut off every day to allow the baseload power generated by nuclear reactors to fit into the grid.
Yada, yada, yada. Blah, blah, blah.
The truth of what will happen is captured in one chart that has nothing whatsoever to do with renewables versus nuclear, both of which will still rely upon gas to set the marginal price, as it has always done.
A few points to note.
- The chart is FY.
- Australia’s energy transition is a price catastrophe that is about to get a lot worse.
- The AER will issue its 2025/26 pricing guise in March and will raise prices again by 5-10%.
- The 2026/27 price shocks are the direct result of LNG imports, which will drive the local gas price to import parity around $25Gj (80% higher).
All that needs to be done to take prices of gas and electricity back ten years is the application of a 15% domestic reservation policy to QLD gas reserves and an export levy above $7Gj.
The transition will be cheap and smooth, and we can get on with making ourselves richer instead of poorer.
Yeh, nah.
The only difference between the ALP and LNP energy superidiots is that the former has so far rebated the cost of the policy catastrophe to households via bill subsidies whereas the LNP says it will not.
Your choice is between a costly failure that you pay for via higher taxes or a catastrophic failure you pay directly to the gas export cartel.
