You have got to love it. Via ANZ:
Concerns are building that a rise in uncontracted LNG exports from Australia are creating shortages in the east coast gas market.
LNG producers currently expect to have 15 PJ of uncontracted gas in the first quarter of 2025, the same amount that is needed to refill the key storage facility of Iona in Victoria by May 2025.
Failure to meet this target will result in little buffer against an unexpected drop in production or a spike in demand.
Iona is only about half full today. We have been warned.
Australia ships three-quarters of its East Coast exports to China, creating for itself a permanent gas shortage that has delivered an inflation shock, industrial hollowing out, and derailing the energy transition.
The total volume of these exports is about 1400Pj, with about 1000Pj going to China.
To secure the East Coast economy, we need instead to domestically reserve about 200Pj per annum of this gas in the long term, as well as triple Iona and other capacity.
Amusingly, in the usual dark way, China flares precisely this amount of gas each year.
I am not saying that this is Aussie gas. Gas is usually burned off when extracting oil for safety reasons.
Yet it is another elegant illustration of how crazy East Coast gas export policies are when China burns off almost exactly the amount of gas that Australia sends there instead of securing its own future.
