Previewing US inflation

Wednesday 11 September 2024

The big one tonight is US inflation. Citi takes a look.

Inflation data are quickly taking a backseat to labor market data in terms of relevance for Fed policy decisions, but with an inconclusive August employment report, August CPI data could be impactful for the probability of a 25bp or 50bp rate cut on September 18.

We expect a 0.204% increase in core CPI, but with strength in details like airfares and medical services that will not directly translate to PCE inflation.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.