Australian dollar firms on weak US jobs

DXY fell overnight:

Cutting AUD some slack:

North Asia is up and away:

Oil has the world’s ugliest chart despite OPEC output cuts:

Metals will go down with it:

Big miners are sitting ducks:

EM is all washed up:

Junk bullish!

Yields plunging!

Stocks don’t know if it is good news or bad:

My view is it bad news, though not terrible, unless you like commodities.

As we approach payrolls, the overnight ADP was soft:

ADP is not a good leading indicator month to month but does trend with the BLS.

I can’t see much good coming out of payrolls unless it beats to the upside.

Soft will not trigger 50bps cuts. Very soft will but spook on growth and profits.

The odds favour a rough night for AUD.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.