What will collapsing Chinese steel exports do?

Monday 26 August 2024

Morgan Stanley thinks it through.

No V-shape, but a modest recovery may be good enough.

US steel prices appear to have bottomed, with recent price hikes by Nucor and Cliffs lifting spot US HRC toUS$695-700/st (+7% from the recent lows); we see room for a modest US$20-25/t uplift into YE as US imports continue to fall.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.