Honestly, it’s like this country had a lobotomy in recent years. The Australian Energy Market Operator is out with its ten-year outlook for the National Electricity Network and the media is in full celebration because power reliability has risen.
The only issue is that it has risen directly and exclusively because the energy transition is failing!
Several factors are driving the 2024 ESOO forecast to show an improved reliability outlook compared with the 2023 reports:
• New wind, solar, battery, gas, and pumped hydro developments continue to progress towards commissioning in the NEM. Approximately 5.7 GW of developments have progressed sufficiently to be newly included since the 2023 ESOO, comprising 3.9 GW/13.5 gigawatt hours (GWh) of batteries, 1.2 GW of large-scale solar, 0.4 GW of wind and 0.2 GW of hydrogen generation.
• Consumers are also investing in larger rooftop solar systems, which continues to reduce the proportion of electricity supplied by the transmission system for households and businesses. This means more energy is supplied from these renewable sources. These systems do not tend to contribute to lowering the scale of peak demands during extreme hot conditions in the summer or extreme cold conditions in the winter.
• Origin Energy has given notice that it now expects to close the 2,880 megawatts (MW) Eraring Power Station in New South Wales on 19 August 2027, a two-year extension on the previously provided date.
• AEMO now considers HumeLink, a new 365 km transmission line which will connect Wagga Wagga, Bannaby and Maragle, to be an anticipated project which will improve reliability risks in New South Wales.
• AEMO now projects lower growth in energy consumption and maximum demand for most NEM regions than was previously forecast. These forecasts continue to consider growth driven by the potential for electrification of household and businesses, the emergence of the hydrogen production industry, and forecast expansion of industrial facilities including the rapid development of data centres. The growth has, however, been moderated by lower electric vehicle (EV) and business consumption trends relative to 2023 forecasts.
In short, we are winning by losing EVs and keeping more coal for longer.
Meanwhile, hilariously, the answer is staring us squarely in the face. Also from AEMO:
Favourable weather conditions toward the end of winter and reduced gas generation demand have allowed Iona to start refilling its storage capacity.
Iona inventory is currently sitting at 44% or 10,736 TJ, while Newcastle LNG is currently holding 556 TJ, which is 36% full.
AEMO’s notices are an important mechanism in the management of gas supply and are used to keep the market fully informed.
Government representatives and industry participants were briefed on AEMO’s decision to end the notice on Thursday afternoon, 22 August, as part of AEMO’s ongoing management of gas supply.
Now winter is passing, there is spare pipeline capacity to refill southern gas tanks.
This is the answer to everything.
Build a few more storage tanks in VIC and NSW, apply domestic reservation and export levies to the QLD gas export cartel, and ship gas south full tilt in the off-season to fill them.
It is cheap, easy and is what every other nation does.
Voila! All gas shortages ended permanently. All coal power gone. All renewables boom. All energy prices crashed. All inflation cured.
