Previewing US inflation

Monday 8 July 2024

Morgan Stanley with the note.

We expect Core CPI inflation at 0.27% (0.2%M consensus, 3.5%Y), higher than May’s weak print but still the second lowest read this year.

We think a repetition of May’s weak prints in auto insurance and airfares is unlikely and, therefore, we forecast stronger core services ex-housing.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.