Can Biden be replaced?

Credit Agricole with the note.

Following a very poor performance in the first 2024 presidential debate, there have been many questions as to whether the Democrats would be able to replace Joe Biden as their candidate, and how this process would work.

The rise of these questions has been reflected in a swing in betting market odds, with the PredictIt odds shifting from around 53-47 in favour of Trump as of the afternoon of the debate to around 56-30 in favour of Trump at the time of writing (see Figure 1), even if polls have not had enough time to really capture any potential impact from the debate (see Figure 2).

Can the Democrats replace Biden?

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.