Does the Trump conviction change his chances?

Monday 3 June 2024

After the conviction of Donald Trump on 34 counts of illegally silencing former prostitute Stormy Daniels, election odds have first swung away from Trump, then back to unchanged.

Goldman argues only 25% of the people believed Trump would be convicted so there is a possibility of further swings.

Most polls indicate minor impacts within the Trump supporter base.

The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers

$1 for your first month, then:

$24.99 / month

$249 / year

Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.