It is over time, actually. As I said in a presentation six months ago, if you had a one-year horizon, then was the time to buy gold.
Still, I am of the view that the trade is a long way from over. TD Securities has a good take.
Gold jumped to the highest in over a month, as traders increased exposure over the last two trading sessions amid lower-than-anticipated wage growth and widening concerns surrounding the financial industry. The combination of moderating wage pressures and financial system concerns have prompted markets to sharply lower rates across the treasury curve, price-in a sharply lower terminal rate, sped up expectations for a pivot, and higher credit risks. This rally is likely being augmented by covering of short positions taken in response to the Fed Chair’s recent hawkish rhetoric ahead of Friday’s payrolls. With US wage momentum slowing and the market expressing concerns about systemic risk, a more hawkish stance looks less likely.
